Will the world end on August 5th?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on August 5th, a globally recognized catastrophic event occurs that results in the effective end of human civilization or the extinction of life on Earth, as officially declared by at least two of the following authoritative bodies: the United Nations, the International Astronomical Union, or the World Meteorological Organization. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Resolution Criteria: "Yes" – if a verifiable, scientifically documented event (e.g., a massive asteroid impact, a supervolcanic eruption, a nuclear war, or a deadly pandemic) leads to the collapse of global infrastructure and the permanent cessation of organized human society, with an official declaration from the above bodies. "No" – if no such event occurs, or if the event does not meet the threshold of "end of the world" as defined above. Resolution Source: The resolution will be based on official statements from the aforementioned organizations, cross-referenced with credible international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP). In the absence of a consensus, the market will resolve to "No". Special Conditions: If the event occurs but its effects are limited to a specific region without global impact, the market resolves to "No". If the event is ambiguous (e.g., a false alarm), the market resolves based on the final, confirmed assessments published within 72 hours of August 5th. In the event of a disruption in communication or global data reporting, the resolution will be deferred until reliable information becomes available, but no later than December 31, 2026. Note on Resolution: It is important to note that, based on current astronomical and geological data, no known potentially hazardous objects or foreseeable natural phenomena are projected to intersect with Earth on August 5th. All major space agencies and scientific institutions have repeatedly affirmed that there is no credible threat to the planet on that date. Consequently, while the market formally allows for a "Yes" outcome, the overwhelming scientific consensus indicates that the resolution will logically be "No". The market is structured to reward participants who recognize the lack of any plausible scenario for a global catastrophe on that specific day.

• Resolver: official source.
• Deadline: closing date in UTC.
• Disputed outcomes: handled by moderators within 48 hours.